Although fixed income markets have been underperforming, BlackRock projects global bond ETF assets under management to reach $5 trillion by 2030. As bond ETFs have been gaining traction during times of near-zero interest rates, the pandemic and inflationary pressures, Salim Ramji, Global Head of ETF and Index Investments, BlackRock credits these catalysts to a “more modern, more digital and more transparent bond market.”. Furthermore adding “Bond ETFs have revolutionized fixed income investing as they provide instant access at transparent prices to hundreds of bond market exposures in ways that are accessible to all investors,”
Driving a Third Decade of Bond ETF Growth
BlackRock pioneered bond ETFs 20 years ago and what started as four products has grown 23% annually into a $1.7 trillion industry with more than 1,400 products. Despite this growth, bond ETFs comprise just 2% of the $124 trillion fixed income asset class.
“The global bond ETF industry is growing faster than we expected, propelled by self-reinforcing and enduring adoption trends from our clients during the pandemic era,” said Carolyn Weinberg, Global Head of Product for ETF and Index Investments. “We believe that the next wave of growth is just beginning. While much of this growth will come from increased adoption of existing products, we are excited for the innovations that incorporate more active management – which we believe will grow five times to $1 trillion in assets by 2030.”
BlackRock’s new paper All systems go, published today, identifies four trends that we believe will help drive further adoption of bond ETFs, with details on trading dynamics, ETF usage patterns, market structure evolution, and implementation strategies of new investment concepts.
1. Building blocks in evolved 60/40 portfolios: Bond ETFs’ market share in the fund industry is 24% compared to 14% five years ago as more investors are blending bond ETFs with active strategies, moving from one type of fixed income exposure to another, reframing the traditional 60/40 portfolio and bond construction in the process.
2. Tools for seeking active returns: Institutional clients—from pensions funds to active managers— are among the fastest-growing adopters as they turn to bond ETFs to adapt their portfolios to changing market conditions, price individual bonds and portfolios, reduce transaction costs, manage liquidity, and hedge risk.
Further tailwinds come from recent regulatory changes in the U.S., putting bond ETFs on a more level playing field with individual bonds and allowing U.S. insurers to use ETFs more freely. Eight of the 10 largest U.S. insurers use bond ETFs, and five of them started using them after the volatile markets of March 2020.
3. Increasingly precise sources of potential returns: The number of bond ETFs available to trade has doubled since 2015 with the industry expanding investor choice from tracking broad market segments to providing more targeted exposures by region, credit risk or maturity to offering advanced strategies that incorporate active management.
Investors are implementing these strategies alongside traditional bond ETFs, individual bonds and other fixed income instruments, and BlackRock believes this next generation of more active bond ETFs can reach $1 trillion in AUM by 2030, up from about $200 billion today.
4. Catalysts for modernizing bond markets: Market structure changes amid the 2008-2009 global financial crisis prompted the first wave of bond ETF adoption. Since then, the growth of bond ETFs and their ecosystem has helped drive advances in electronic trading and algorithmic pricing of individual bonds, improving transparency and liquidity in underlying bond markets. Electronic trading volumes in U.S. investment grade bonds at the end of March 2022 accounted for 36% of total traded volumes for those bonds, up from 21% in early 2019.
Meanwhile, electronic trading volumes of European corporate bonds grew 61% between 2017 and 2020, reflecting the needs for smaller institutions, such as asset managers and wealth managers to seek alternative means of fixed income market access.
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