Trump’s “big border tax,” if adopted, could hurt trade and millions of workers within Canada Source: Ted Carmichael Global Macro With this tweet on January 5, President-elect Donald Trump got the attention of not only of Toyota and Mexico, but also a few astute Canadians. The realization began to dawn on them that Trump’s promise to…
Along with a decline in liquidity, issuers of securities also noted the greater degree of difficulty they had in gauging the market and pricing new issues of benchmark bonds. They also noted the trend of investors demanding larger, more liquid benchmark bonds. Source: Wizard-At-Odds The BIS released their quarterly review at the beginning of December. In…
The Green bond market – a market used to raise funds for environmental projects – is on track to achieve growth in 2017, as volumes doubled this past year. The green bond market seems to be unphased by the scrutiny of climate change by US Present-elect, Donald Trump, over the past months. Source: The Globe and…
The future of banking might move towards third-party technologies that would leverage a bank’s large client base, capital position, trust and brand name. This may be the basis for developing new third-party business models or allowing for clients to easily conduct business with one another. Source: The Banker Regulatory pressure Regulatory pressures following the global financial…
The 2016 bull market was one of the largest in over eight centuries. A reversal through inflation could cause this bubble to burst. If it does, it will be worse than in 1994, when global government bonds suffered the biggest annual loss on record Source: Bloomberg Paul Schmelzing, a PhD candidate at Harvard University and a…
The big surprises of 2016 – Brexit, the impeachment of President Dilma Roussef in Brazil, and the election of Donald Trump as President – will have significant economic impacts in 2017 and beyond. Source: Ted Carmichael Global Macro It’s time to look ahead to global macro prospects for 2017. I have posted similar outlooks for the…
Income opportunities in fixed income still exist amid rising inflation Source: Morningstar The degree may vary, but most economists agree that inflationary pressures are re-emerging. A combination of factors, including a rising oil price, Trump’s reflationary fiscal policies and, in the UK, Brexit, are contributing to higher inflation expectations. Inflation has is an historic foe for…
With a year of widespread volatility behind us, uncertainty will likely remain a key theme for 2017 Instability in the financial markets was a major theme for 2016. The second quarter saw record lows in bond yields after the shock of June’s referendum vote in the UK, however, markets have made a recovery in the…
2016 saw emerging markets raising $450 billion in global bond markets, with 2017 expected to be robust Source: Thomson Reuters Dec 22 Emerging governments and companies have raised close to $450 billion on global bond markets in 2016, with sovereign sales hitting record highs, and issuance next year will likely be robust as borrowers scramble to…
The biggest forecast misses were in the political arena, which had, and will continue to have, significant economic and financial market consequences Source: Ted Carmichael Global Macro As the year comes to a close, it is time to review how the macro consensus forecasts for 2016 that were made a year ago fared. Each December, I…
With trading volumes for US corporate bonds up
