COBI and Predictive Analytics in the Fixed Income Market

The Overbond platform’s COBI (Corporate Bond Intelligence) tool uses big data technology and machine learning to study data and construct algorithms that enable it to predict indicative debt capital market pricing levels, propensity to issue and match making for investors and issuers. COBI’s coverage includes 90% of active issuers in the Canadian fixed income marketplace (approximately 30% of total issuing entities).

As a machine learning algorithm, COBI forecasts new issue levels for issuers by analyzing secondary levels, recent new issue spreads, and sector comparables. COBI’s CAD indicative pricing levels have demonstrated a high level of accuracy – 15 of the last 20 CAD deals in 2017 were priced within 2 bps of COBI’s prediction.

COBI is powered by millions of data points from multiple data sources including Thomson Reuters, DBRS and Egan-Jones Rating Company (EJR), thereby offering issuers real-time, reliable, and independent new issue pricing. So far, no algorithm has been launched with this level of precision in debt capital markets.

The Overbond team developed COBI tools to help provide more transparency, efficiency and accuracy for corporate bond issuers, dealers and investors. The suite of tools were designed with the objective of improving investment decision-making by providing independent new issue pricing data.

Specific tools within the COBI toolkit include:
  • Bond Pricer: forecasts indicative new issue pricing levels
  • COBI Reports: automatically generate PDF reports with a single click
  • Credit Curve Analysis: provides new issue and secondary trading spreads for comparable issuers
  • Debt Maturity Analysis: visualize an issuer’s upcoming debt maturities in an interactive chart
  • Documentation Search: parse through over 250,000 public corporate filings
  • Swap Pricer: real-time swapped equivalent rates for prospective new issues

A simplified version of the Swap Pricer is also publicly available here. To learn more about COBI tools, request access to the Overbond platform today or log in here.